Florida is almost certain to fall out of the top 10 after its stunning 45-17 loss to No. 25 Missouri, with most projections placing the Gators somewhere between approximately No. 14 and No. 20 in the next AP Top 25.
The exact landing spot will depend on how individual AP voters weigh Florida’s impressive 4-0 start against the severity of Saturday’s defeat. The Gators entered the game ranked No. 8 after jumping 13 places the previous week, but Missouri dominated them by 28 points and accumulated 560 yards of offense. [AP]
There is considerable disagreement among early projections. AP voter Brett McMurphy has Florida dropping only to No. 11, while other projections put the Gators at No. 13, No. 14, No. 18, No. 19 or No. 20. [On3][Sports Illustrated][On3]
What Happened To Florida Against Missouri?
Florida entered Columbia ranked No. 8 nationally, undefeated at 4-0 and coming off a 52-28 victory over then-No. 4 Ole Miss.
Missouri quickly erased the momentum surrounding the Gators.
The Tigers beat Florida 45-17, outgained the Gators 560-325 and averaged 8.5 yards per play. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons completed 23 of 30 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Jamal Roberts rushed for 211 yards and three scores. [Reuters]
Florida’s normally productive running game was almost completely neutralized. Star running back Jadan Baugh managed only 13 yards on 12 carries. [AP]
Missouri scored 35 unanswered points after Florida tied the game 10-10 late in the second quarter.
How Far Is Florida Expected To Fall In The AP Poll?
The early projections suggest Florida could fall anywhere from the edge of the top 10 to around No. 20.
Some notable projections include:
Brett McMurphy AP ballot: No. 11
Sports Illustrated projection: No. 13
FanSided projection: No. 14
On3 projection: No. 18
Florida-focused FanSided projection: No. 19
College Football News projection: No. 20
McMurphy’s ballot represents one actual AP voter rather than a prediction of the complete poll. He dropped Florida only three positions, from No. 8 to No. 11. [On3]
On3’s full poll projection is much harsher, placing Florida at No. 18. College Football News goes even further and predicts the Gators at No. 20. [On3][College Football News]
Why Could Florida Fall So Many Spots?
The biggest problem is not simply that Florida lost.
It is how Florida lost.
A close road defeat against the No. 25 team probably would have resulted in a relatively modest drop. Instead, Missouri controlled virtually every important phase of the game and won by four touchdowns.
The Associated Press specifically identified Florida as the team most likely to make a significant downward move in the new poll after the Gators suffered the most notable loss among highly ranked teams Saturday. [AP]
Florida allowed Missouri to accumulate 560 yards, including 340 through the air and more than 200 from Roberts on the ground.
The Gators also trailed 45-10 before scoring a touchdown with less than a minute remaining.
That makes the final 45-17 score arguably look slightly closer than the game actually was.
Why Might Florida Stay Higher Than No. 18 Or No. 20?
Florida still owns one of the better victories of the young season.
Just one week before the Missouri loss, the Gators demolished then-No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28. That victory sent Florida soaring from No. 21 to No. 8 in the AP poll. [AP]
Florida is also still 4-1, and its only defeat came on the road against a ranked SEC opponent.
Those factors appear to be why McMurphy kept the Gators as high as No. 11 on his AP ballot despite the ugly score. [On3]
FanSided similarly projected Florida at No. 14, arguing that the Gators still have enough offensive talent and résumé strength to remain comfortably inside the top 15. [FanSided]
Why Could Florida Drop All The Way To No. 20?
The argument for a much harsher drop begins with the margin.
Florida did not lose by a field goal or even two touchdowns. The Gators lost by 28 points to a Missouri team that entered the weekend ranked No. 25.
College Football News projects Florida falling 12 positions from No. 8 to No. 20. Its projection also places Missouri two spots ahead of Florida at No. 18 following the head-to-head blowout. [College Football News]
Another Florida-focused projection places the Gators at No. 19, describing an 11-position fall as severe but justified by the 45-17 score. [Hail Florida Hail]
Will Missouri Pass Florida In The Rankings?
There is a strong possibility.
Missouri entered the game No. 25 but now owns perhaps the most impressive win of Week 5.
The Tigers improved to 4-1 and snapped a nine-game losing streak against AP Top 25 opponents. Their 28-point victory was also one of the biggest wins over a top-10 team in Missouri program history. [Reuters]
On3 projects Missouri climbing from No. 25 to No. 16 while Florida falls to No. 18. College Football News has Missouri at No. 18 and Florida at No. 20. [On3][College Football News]
McMurphy takes a different view. His ballot still has Florida at No. 11 while putting Missouri at No. 19. [On3]
That disagreement illustrates the central question voters must answer: how much should one head-to-head result outweigh the teams’ complete résumés?
How Much Did Florida Rise Last Week?
Florida’s likely fall is particularly dramatic because of what happened only seven days earlier.
The Gators were ranked No. 21 before beating No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28.
That victory caused Florida to jump 13 positions to No. 8, its highest AP ranking since 2020. [AP]
If Florida falls to somewhere around No. 18 or No. 19 this week, it will have essentially given back most of that enormous one-week gain.
What Happened To Florida In ESPN’s FPI?
Florida has already taken a substantial hit in one major computer ranking.
The Gators fell five positions to No. 15 in ESPN’s Football Power Index following the Missouri loss. Florida’s FPI rating also fell from 19.3 to 15.2. [Gators Wire]
ESPN’s model also sharply reduced Florida’s College Football Playoff outlook, with its projected playoff probability falling to 14.6 percent. [Gators Wire]
FPI is not the AP poll and uses a completely different methodology, but the move provides another indication of how significantly Saturday’s result damaged Florida’s national standing.
Is Florida Still A College Football Playoff Contender?
Yes, but the margin for error is much smaller.
One loss does not eliminate a major-conference team from the expanded College Football Playoff race, particularly when that loss comes on the road against a ranked opponent.
Florida also has plenty of opportunities to repair its résumé.
The Gators still have major games remaining against teams including Texas and Georgia. A victory over one or both would give Florida the type of high-value win that could quickly restore its national standing.
But another loss—particularly against a lower-ranked opponent—would make the path considerably more difficult.
Who Does Florida Play Next?
Florida returns home to face South Carolina.
That game suddenly becomes important for the Gators because it offers an immediate chance to show that the Missouri performance was an aberration rather than evidence of a larger problem.
Florida then faces an increasingly difficult portion of its SEC schedule, including a matchup with Texas on October 17 and its rivalry game against Georgia on October 31. [Florida]
Could Florida Get Back Into The Top 10?
Yes.
Florida’s rapid rise after beating Ole Miss demonstrates how quickly rankings can change when a team produces a major victory.
If the Gators beat South Carolina and then defeat highly ranked opponents later in October, voters would have compelling reasons to move them back upward.
The Missouri loss therefore damages Florida’s ranking much more than it permanently defines the Gators’ season.
The Bottom Line
Florida is almost certain to fall out of the AP top 10 after losing 45-17 at Missouri, but exactly how far the Gators drop is unusually difficult to predict.
Published projections range from No. 11 to No. 20. Brett McMurphy has Florida at No. 11 on his actual AP ballot, Sports Illustrated projects No. 13, FanSided has No. 14, On3 projects No. 18 and College Football News has Florida falling to No. 20. [On3][Sports Illustrated][FanSided][College Football News]
A ranking somewhere around No. 14 to No. 20 is therefore a reasonable expectation, with the Gators’ 52-28 victory over Ole Miss helping prevent an even more dramatic collapse.
Regardless of the exact number, Florida’s one-week stay at No. 8 is almost certainly over. The bigger question now is whether the Gators can use the rest of October to climb back toward the top 10.
